Near Miss Tonight, Bigger Dangers Tomorrow: The Asteroids That Could Change Life on Earth

Written by: Sam Orlando

STAUNTON, VIRGINIA - As the asteroid 877 Alinda glides safely past Earth this evening, its near-miss status serves as a cosmic reminder: while tonight’s event is harmless, the universe has bigger rocks—and bigger risks—on the horizon.

The Harmless Visitor: 877 Alinda

Asteroid 877 Alinda, a space rock wider than Manhattan, will pass within 7.6 million miles of Earth tonight. While this might sound alarmingly close, it’s actually a safe distance in astronomical terms. Amateur stargazers armed with binoculars can catch a glimpse of the asteroid near the constellation Gemini, while the rest of us might tune into the Virtual Telescope Project's live stream to witness its passage.

While Alinda’s approach is benign, it invites us to consider the far more threatening objects lurking in our solar system.

The 2029 Showdown: Apophis

One such object is asteroid 99942 Apophis, a massive 1,100-foot asteroid hurtling through space. On April 13, 2029—yes, Friday the 13th—Apophis will pass within 19,000 miles of Earth, closer than many satellites in geostationary orbit. For context, that’s about one-tenth the distance to the Moon.

When it was discovered in 2004, scientists initially gave Apophis a chilling 2.7% chance of colliding with Earth during this flyby. Further studies have ruled out an impact in 2029, but the event will still offer scientists a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to study an asteroid up close without leaving the comfort of our planet.

While Apophis is not expected to hit Earth in 2029, its close approach highlights the unpredictability of near-Earth objects. Even slight changes in an asteroid’s trajectory—caused by gravitational interactions or the Yarkovsky effect (a phenomenon where heat from the Sun subtly alters an asteroid’s path)—can shift an object’s orbit dramatically.

The 2182 Threat: Bennu

Further in the future, asteroid 101955 Bennu presents a different kind of challenge. Bennu, a 1,600-foot-wide asteroid, has a 1 in 2,700 chance of colliding with Earth in the year 2182. Should such an impact occur, Bennu could release energy equivalent to 1.4 billion tons of TNT—enough to cause catastrophic destruction and potentially alter the course of life on Earth.

NASA has already taken steps to study Bennu closely. In 2021, the OSIRIS-REx mission successfully collected samples from the asteroid, providing invaluable data about its composition, orbit, and the risks it poses. Scientists are optimistic that with continued observation, Bennu’s trajectory can be better understood and—if necessary—mitigated.

Why We Should Care

While the odds of a catastrophic asteroid impact remain low, the consequences of even a single event could be devastating. History reminds us of this: 66 million years ago, a 6-mile-wide asteroid wiped out the dinosaurs, reshaping Earth’s ecosystems in the blink of an eye. Smaller impacts, like the Tunguska event of 1908, caused significant damage even without touching the ground.

NASA and other space agencies worldwide are working on planetary defense strategies, including missions like DART, which demonstrated our ability to deflect an asteroid by intentionally altering its orbit. These technologies, while promising, underscore the importance of vigilance in monitoring near-Earth objects.

A Call to Action

Tonight, as 877 Alinda passes safely by, we should take a moment to appreciate the delicate dance of celestial mechanics that keeps Earth out of harm’s way. But we must also recognize the importance of preparedness. Identifying and tracking potential threats isn’t just about protecting our planet—it’s about ensuring the survival of humanity itself.